UFC Paris Fight Night Picks & Predictions

First off, I’d like to thank everyone who has visited my page or read any of my articles. Whether I’m writing about MMA or the stock market, your support means a lot to me. I’m grateful for every single person who has checked out my writing — it truly means a great deal!

(Quick note before I dive into things) — similar to last week’s card, this one is going to be tricky to predict. Even more so because there are many fighters making their UFC debuts, which means there isn’t much tape to study. On top of that, almost every matchup feels like a toss-up. Still, I don’t think it’s anything we can’t handle.

Last week was a little disappointing. I apologize for dropping below 70%, but we still hit at a 66% clip. Considering how many toss-ups were on that card, I’d say the predictions were solid overall. We went 8/12, so not too bad. I also forgot to upload the picks on Tapology since I wrote the article right before my SAT — it completely slipped my mind. None of the picks changed, though, so no worries there.

This week’s card should be both interesting and entertaining. There are several fighters making their debuts in the UFC: Axel Sola, Ante Delija, Robert Ruchala, and Losene Keita. It’s unusual to see four fighters debut on the same card, but hey — it should make things fun to watch and tough to predict.

The main event between Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho is also a unique situation. As Dana White explained, it’s one of two #1 contender matches. This fight, along with the upcoming Anthony Hernandez vs. Reinier De Ridder bout, will decide who faces Khamzat Chimaev for the middleweight title. Dana made it clear that whichever winner looks more dominant will get the shot.

Let’s dive into the breakdowns.

Note:

Props aren’t out yet since I’m writing this a week in advance. I’ll give my method of victory or money line pick instead.

Prelims

(W) Shauna Bannon (+210) vs. Sam Hughes (-260), Strawweight (115 lbs)
This is a pretty uneventful women’s fight with no real implications for the division. That said, Sam Hughes has quietly built a nice win streak, picking up underdog victories over Victoria Dudakova and Stephanie Luciano.

Shauna Bannon, on the other hand, hasn’t been very convincing. She should have lost her most recent fight after getting dropped by Puja Tumar (who isn’t a high-level opponent) but managed to pull off a slick armbar. Before that, she barely edged out a split decision win at UFC 304 against Alice Ardelean. Bannon is a decent kickboxer with some submission skills, but she’s hittable.

Sam Hughes is a gritty, pressure-heavy fighter. She comes forward, overwhelms opponents, and grinds out control time. I don’t love the odds here, but I trust Hughes’ pressure and wrestling to neutralize Bannon’s striking.

Pick: Sam Hughes
Best Bet: Sam Hughes by Decision (odds n/a)

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-150) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+120), Welterweight (170 lbs)
This fight actually matters for the welterweight rankings, with both fighters hovering near the top 15.

Fakhretdinov is a classic Russian wrestler with relentless pressure and cardio. His striking is average but sets up his takedowns. Despite an 18-finish record, most of his UFC wins have come by decision — he isn’t particularly dangerous.

Gustafsson is also pressure-heavy but more of a “bully striker.” He likes to push opponents back, outwork them, and break their will. He impressed on the Contender Series and then beat Khaos Williams in his UFC debut — a legit win since Williams is tough and dangerous.

I think Fakhretdinov’s UFC record is padded. He squeaked by Nicolas Dalby in a split decision and arguably lost to Carlos Leal in what many called a robbery. His wrestling didn’t look dominant in that fight, and he struggled to land clean shots.

Gustafsson, meanwhile, has the tools to punish Fakhretdinov in the clinch and outwork him over three rounds. I like the underdog here.

Pick: Andreas Gustafsson
Best Bet: Andreas Gustafsson ML (-110)

Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek, Middleweight (185 lbs)
This fight doesn’t mean much in the middleweight division. It’s basically “Unc vs. Unc,” with Tavares at 37 and Bryczek at 35.

Bryczek lost his UFC debut to Ihor Potieria, which is embarrassing — Potieria is widely seen as one of the weakest fighters on the roster. Still, Bryczek has solid striking and KO power, with Jan Blachowicz praising him, though that may just be Polish loyalty.

Tavares is a veteran with 26 UFC fights and strong takedown defense. He’s a technical striker who usually wins decisions against mid-tier opponents but loses to top contenders. Despite his age and mileage, I think Tavares’ speed advantage and experience should help him edge out a decision here.

Pick: Brad Tavares
Best Bet: Brad Tavares by Decision (odds n/a)

Sam Patterson (-210) vs. Trey Waters (+180), Welterweight (170 lbs)
This is a fun stylistic clash. Patterson is tall and rangy at 6’3, while Waters is even bigger at 6’5 with a thicker build. Both are long strikers with equal reach.

Waters is coming off a war with Billy Ray Goff where he took a lot of damage, and he’s had a long layoff since. His weight cut could be rough, which makes me question his cardio. Patterson, now at welterweight, looks sturdier after moving up from lightweight and has improved his grappling game.

While Waters has the power and boxing to clip Patterson, I think Patterson’s length, cardio, and grappling will win out. I expect him to wear Waters down and possibly lock up a late submission.

Pick: Sam Patterson
Best Bet: Sam Patterson ML (-150 range)

Axel Sola vs. Rhys McKee — Welterweight (170 lbs)
Interesting short-notice matchup here. UFC newcomer Axel Sola comes in with a 10–0–1 record, mostly in ARES, a solid European promotion for rising talent. Rhys McKee, meanwhile, has five UFC fights under his belt, going 1–4 across two stints. His lone UFC win came against Daniel Frunza, dominating him before a doctor stoppage. He also has respectable losses to Chidi Njokouani and Ange Loosa, and two Cage Warriors TKOs that earned him another UFC shot.

McKee is a solid striker with a long 78" reach and plenty of UFC experience — he should have no octagon jitters. Sola, taking this fight on short notice, up a weight class, and in front of his home crowd, faces extra pressure. That said, Sola is a tough inside fighter who can capitalize in the pocket.

This is a close fight, but I’m leaning toward Sola. He’s extremely talented, and I think he has what it takes to beat a lower-tier UFC opponent.

Pick: Axel Sola
Best Bet: Axel Sola ML -130

Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija — Heavyweight (265 lbs)
Another matchup with a UFC newcomer, Ante Delija, transitioning from PFL. Delija is 35, 8–3 in the PFL, and 1–0 in Rizin and KSW. Tybura, 39, has been in the UFC for years with a 14–8 record, facing top-tier heavyweights like Aspinall, Parkin, Tuivasa, and Volkov. He’s a mid-tier striker with strong grappling, preferring to grind opponents down on the mat.

Delija has power and a solid wrestling base, but Tybura’s UFC experience gives him a clear edge. He should neutralize Delija’s striking, control grappling exchanges, and come away with the win.

Pick: Marcin Tybura
Best Bet: Marcin Tybura ML

Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro — Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Sy disappointed in his last fight as a heavy favorite, looking lost against veteran Alonzo Menifield. Still, he has solid grappling, composed striking, and a lot of upside. Ribeiro is wild and unpredictable but hasn’t impressed much in the UFC (2–3), with padded wins and losses to strong fighters.

Sy has the skill advantage everywhere — standing or on the ground — and should bounce back with a smart performance. A KO, submission, or decision is all possible.

Pick: Oumar Sy
Best Bet: Oumar Sy ML

William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala — Featherweight (145 lbs)
Gomis is a technical, measured fighter with 4–1 UFC experience, skilled in striking and grappling. Ruchala comes from KSW as a two-time champion and a flashy, unpredictable fighter. UFC competition is a step up, and Gomis’ precision and grappling should be decisive.

He’s likely to avoid Ruchala’s wild attacks and control exchanges throughout, earning the win.

Pick: William Gomis
Best Bet: Gomis by Decision

Patricio Pitbull vs. Losene Keita — Featherweight (145 lbs)
This is a highly anticipated debut for Keita, a 27-year-old double champ in Oktagon with knockout power and versatility. Pitbull is a former double Bellator champ, now 1–1 in the UFC. He’s talented but past his prime.

Experience favors Pitbull, but Keita is in his prime, extremely well-rounded, and has high finishing ability. I expect the newcomer to pull off the win, though Pitbull could still sneak a crafty performance.

Pick: Losene Keita
Best Bet: Keita ITD

Fares Ziam vs. Kaue Fernandes — Lightweight (155 lbs)
This is a very fun lightweight matchup between two strikers with contrasting styles. Fares Ziam is a technical, composed fighter who picks opponents apart from range. He throws moderate volume with precise shots, and he’s effective in the clinch with knees to the body. While he has solid grappling, he prefers to stay on the feet.

Kaue Fernandes is flashier and more unpredictable. He’s coming off a huge upset win over Guram Kutateladze, dominating both standing and on the ground, and previously scored a KO over Mohammed Yahya. Fernandes is 2–1 in the UFC and has shown serious improvement, making him dangerous.

Ziam has UFC experience on his side, with a 7–2 record in the promotion. Fernandes is on the rise, but I believe Ziam’s well-rounded skill set and composure will give him the edge in a close fight.

Pick: Fares Ziam via Decision
Best Bet: N/A (Fight may be off due to Ziam’s withdrawal; if Fernandes fights a replacement opponent, he’s favored unless it’s a top-15 fighter)

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig — Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
This fight is likely to be a one-sided affair. Paul Craig has elite jiu-jitsu but lacks the striking to compete effectively against a technical striker like Bukauskas. Bukauskas is precise, uses low volume, and relies on striking to win decisions, only using submissions when necessary.

Craig’s limited striking makes him predictable. Bukauskas should control the stand-up exchanges and coast to a decision unless he scores a TKO. His last fight, a split decision against Ion Cutelaba, was controversial, but that experience won’t be an issue here.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas
Best Bet: Bukauskas ML or Decision

Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones — Lightweight (155 lbs)
A fun lightweight bout focused on striking. Oki is a simple, straightforward striker with limited head movement. Jones is more dynamic, flashy, and experienced, recently returning to the UFC after wins in Cage Warriors and a solid performance against Jeremy Stephens.

Jones has the advantage in volume, technique, and versatility. Oki can land power shots, but Jones should control the fight and earn a decision.

Pick: Mason Jones via Decision
Best Bet: Mason Jones by Decision

Benoit St-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy — Lightweight (155 lbs)
High-stakes lightweight matchup with potential top-15 implications. Ruffy is a slick striker with excellent distance management and high-impact shots. St-Denis is a powerful, well-rounded fighter with a dominant ground game but sloppy striking and poor head movement.

St-Denis’ only path to victory is a high-volume takedown strategy, which is unlikely to succeed against Ruffy’s striking. Ruffy has multiple ways to win, either standing or capitalizing on a sloppy takedown attempt.

Pick: Mauricio Ruffy
Best Bet: Ruffy ML -230

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho — Middleweight (185 lbs)
This is the standout bout of the card — a true #1 contender matchup. Imavov is on a 4-fight win streak, defeating top competition including Jared Cannonier, Brendan Allen, and Israel Adesanya. He’s a well-rounded kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and footwork.

Borralho is also well-rounded, an elite grappler, and has steadily risen through the UFC ranks. While Borralho is dangerous on the ground, Imavov’s takedown defense and superior striking should keep the fight standing. Over five rounds, Imavov’s precision and volume should secure the win.

Pick: Nassourdine Imavov
Best Bet: Imavov ML +100

Longshot Parlay

• William Gomis ML -170

• Nassourdine Imavov ML +100

• Alexander Gustafsson ML -120

• Marcin Tybura ML -115

Odds: +1000

UFC Shanghai Fight Night Picks & Predictions

Picks and Predictions for UFC Shanghai Fight Night - 8/23

Recap

Last week was another strong outing overall. Quick note before diving in: occasionally I’ll switch a pick last minute. To avoid confusion, I’ll always leave my Tapology link here so you can check for real-time updates if I make changes or if late-notice fights are added.

That being said, I went 9/12 on picks last week — solid results. My misses were Alibi Idriss, Chase Hooper, and Kai Asakura (who busted just about everyone’s parlays). Still, I’m happy with the card overall. I also finished 101st out of 9,292 on Tapology, which means I placed better than 99% of all entries. Hoping to keep that momentum rolling into this weekend.

On another note — I’ll be taking the SAT this weekend (wish me luck, aiming for a 1400), so I won’t be able to watch live. But don’t worry, I’ve still got the breakdowns, picks, and best bets lined up for you.

Quick Disclaimer

This card looks trickier than usual. A lot of close matchups, and the prelims in particular feel volatile. If you’re betting, be cautious with parlays. My “Best Bets” this week lean on the safer side. Additionally, I realized for copy-right reasons, I cannot add the images I want. So by next week, I will find a solution to that issue.

Prelims

Uran Satybaldiev Vs. Diyar Nugozhay (LHW)

Messy fight to kick things off. Both fighters are 0–1 in the UFC. Satybaldiev gave Martin Buday a surprisingly competitive fight on short notice, landing the bigger shots despite being undersized. Nurgozhay, meanwhile, badly missed weight (by 4–5 lbs) in his last fight and then got submitted by Brendson Ribeiro. That’s not a good look for a guy whose strength is supposed to be grappling.

Satybaldiev isn’t elite anywhere but he’s tough and more reliable. Nurgozhay has shown quit in him, which I never like picking. Still, this is razor-close and probably the least confident pick of the card.

Pick: Satybaldiev (very low confidence)
Best Bet: None (likely off the board anyway)

Uran Satybaldiev winning the LFA Light Heavyweight Championship

Xiao Long vs. Su Young Yu (BW)

Fun stylistic matchup between two grapplers. Xiao Long prefers to strike despite his grappling base, while Su Young Yu is a relentless wrestler who wastes no time shooting takedowns.

Most lean toward Xiao Long for his takedown defense, but I’m siding with Yu. His pace is suffocating, and the constant takedown threat should also open up striking opportunities. Korean fighters have looked extremely sharp in 2025, and I’m not betting against that trend.

Pick: Su Young Yu (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Su Young Yu ML -150

Su Young Yu shadown boxing during his photoshoot for UAE Warriors promotion

YiZha vs. Westin Wilson (FW)

YiZha as a -1400 favorite? Wild. Neither of these guys should ever be priced that steep unless they’re fighting amateurs.

Wilson is limited but has at least one UFC win, and his losses came to killers like Joanderson Brito and Jean Silva. YiZha is 0–2 in the UFC but did face solid competition. He should win here by keeping it on the feet, but there’s value in Wilson as a massive underdog.

Pick: YiZha (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Small sprinkle on Westin Wilson ML

YiZha posing for his UFC Photoshoot

Michael Daukas Vs. Michel Pereira (MW)

Straightforward breakdown: Pereira is unpredictable, flashy, and dangerous early. Daukaus is a grappler with solid submission chops, but his striking isn’t enough to hang with Pereira.

Gas tank is always the issue with Pereira, but I think he ends this in Round 1 before that becomes a factor.

Pick: Michel Pereira (high confidence)
Best Bet: Pereira KO/TKO +160

Michel Pereira performing a backflip to pass his opponent, Ihor Potieria’s, defensive guard

Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard (LW)

Sneaky good fight. Rongzhu impressed by dismantling Kody Steele as a +250 underdog, showing sharp striking and composure. Hubbard is a grinder with decent boxing, but his game feels a step behind at this level.

The odds are wide, but Rongzhu should defend takedowns and land the bigger shots.

Pick: Rongzhu (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Rongzhu by KO/TKO or Points -210

Lone’er Kavanugh Vs. Charles Johnson (FLW)

Rongzhu landing a clean right-cross against his opponent Kody Steele

Great stylistic matchup. Kavanaugh is fast, dangerous, and has momentum after two UFC wins. Johnson is a seasoned vet, technical striker, and tends to heat up as fights go long.

I see Johnson dropping the first round but turning it around in the 2nd and 3rd. Close one, but experience sways me here.

Pick: Charles Johnson (low confidence)
Best Bet: Johnson +3.5 -180

Gauge Young Vs. Maheshate (LW)

Two middling lightweights. Maheshate has distance striking but is inconsistent and 1–3 in his last four. Gauge Young hits harder in the pocket and should edge out rounds with damage.

Expect a low-level, possibly boring decision.

Pick: Gauge Young (low confidence)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 -164

Gauge Young flexing in the octagon after defeating his opponent

Main Card

Taiyilake Nueraji Vs. Kiefer Crosbie (WW)

This matchup looks tailor-made for Nueraji to shine in front of the home crowd. Crosbie is wild, powerful, but very beatable.

Expect Nueraji to overwhelm him with well-rounded tools and get a finish.

Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji (high confidence)
Best Bet: Nueraji Inside the Distance -250

Taiyilake Nueraji celebrating his victory on the regional scene

Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas (FLW)

Both are solid top-25 flyweights. Sumudaerji is rangy and uses kicks to manage distance but doesn’t land with much power. Borjas is sharper with his boxing and likely lands the more meaningful shots.

Close, competitive striking match, but I lean Borjas for output and impact.

Pick: Kevin Borjas (low/medium confidence)
Best Bet: Borjas ML +135

Sergei Pavlovich Vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (HW)

Pavlovich is dangerous early but one-dimensional and hasn’t evolved. Cortes-Acosta, while not elite, is improving and could outlast Pavlovich by avoiding big shots.

This feels closer than people think.

Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (low confidence)
Best Bet: Cortes-Acosta ML

Waldo Cortes Acosta landing ground and pound shots on Ryan Spann

Co-Main: Brian Ortega Vs. Aljamain Sterling (FW, 5 rounds)

Two elite grapplers, former champ vs. perennial contender. Ortega’s jiu-jitsu is always a threat, but Sterling’s back control and top game should neutralize him. Aljo also has the edge in striking volume.

Unless Ortega pulls off a sub, I see Sterling controlling enough minutes to win.

Pick: Aljamain Sterling (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance -180

Aljamain Sterling celebrating his split-decision victory over Petr Yan while having the belt wrapped around his waist

Main Event: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang (LHW, 5 Rounds)

Walker is unpredictable, athletic, and fun — but he’s been in a slump. Zhang is young, powerful, and has grappling he hasn’t even needed to use yet.

If Zhang fights smart, he should be able to close distance, win exchanges, and potentially finish Walker.

Pick: Mingyang Zhang (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Zhang KO/Sub -310

Zhang Mingyang celebrating his victory by sitting on top of the octagon

Longshot Parlay (+1680)

• Charles Johnson +3.5 (-180)

• Michel Pereira 1st Round KO/TKO (+440)

• Taiyilake Nueraji ML (-330)

• Maheshate vs. Gauge Young Over 2.5 (-160)

Thanks For Reading!!! Until Next Week.

Inside The Octagon Vol 1.

UFC 319 Hype Poster, designed by UFC

Note* This article is old. I just created the new website but wanted this to be on the page.

UFC 319 Picks & Predictions

By: Leo Guerreiro

There haven’t been many words to describe UFC pay-per-views in 2025 so far. If I had to pick one word to recap them all, as a 17-year-old MMA fan, I would say “lackluster.” Now, don’t get me wrong — there have definitely been some exciting fights and main events this year. Still, there have been only a few truly noteworthy fights on PPVs, like Royval vs. Van, Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov, Jiri vs. Hill, and a few others. Like I said earlier, the PPVs overall — and especially the main events — have been a bit of a letdown.

However, this weekend we should be in for a potential treat with Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev for the Middleweight (185 lbs) Championship. Chimaev is a smothering and dominant grappler, while DDP, the current champion with two title defenses, is known for his unorthodox style but has found nothing but success inside the UFC.

Not to mention, we also have a few other exciting matchups, such as Neal vs. Prates, a potential barnburner, and the debut of extremely touted Bellator prospect Aaron Pico, who takes on undefeated (34-year-old 😂) prospect Lerone Murphy in what could be a Featherweight Title Eliminator.

Let’s take a deeper dive into all the matchups on this card to see what we’re working with!

P.S. If you’d like to see my pick percentage or weekly picks, check out my Tapology account: GUERREIROPICKS — I’m currently picking at a 70.1% clip, going 10/12 on the last fight night (Dolidze vs. Hernandez).

Karine Silva plotting her next move against her opponent.

(WMMA) Karine Silva -230 vs. Dione Barbosa +190 (Flyweight, 125 lbs)
Dione Barbosa is coming off a quick submission win, which was definitely a nice result. However, I’m not very impressed with her recent opponent, Diana Belbita, who is no longer in the UFC (I believe). On the other hand, Silva is coming off a decision loss to veteran Viviane Araujo, in which most people favored Silva, but she disappointed in this fight.

Silva loves to pressure and is a big submission threat on the ground. Honestly, I think Barbosa is not on the same level as Silva, though she is still UFC-caliber. Barbosa should have good enough defense on the ground to deal with Silva’s submission threats. Neither woman has striking power strong enough to put the other away while standing, so most of the work will be done against the cage or on the ground — where I expect Silva to take the fight.

Pick: Karine Silva (high confidence)
Best Bet: Karine Silva ML -230

UFC fighter Nursulton Ruziboev landing uppercut on opponent, Sedriques Dumas

Nursulton Ruziboev +145 vs. Bryan Battle -170 (Middleweight, 185 lbs)
The next fight on the card is an interesting middleweight bout. Bryan Battle has fought in the welterweight division for most, if not all, of his UFC career. He has won all of his UFC fights except for his matchup against Rinat Fakhretdinov. Battle is a well-rounded martial artist who puts out a lot of volume and will continue to march forward and apply pressure.

On the other hand, Ruziboev has swung between weight classes, both at welterweight and middleweight. I’m not even sure how he makes welterweight — he’s a monster standing at 6’5”. He has solid striking with less volume but an incredible amount of power, having knocked out fighters like Bruno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas. His only loss came at welterweight, likely drained from the weight cut, to surging welterweight contender Joaquin Buckley.

Ruziboev also has a phenomenal ground game, though he hasn’t needed to use it much in the UFC. He boasts a 4–1 UFC record. I’m a big Ruziboev fan, so it’s hard to pick this fight without some bias. Battle typically uses physicality to outwork his opponents, but I do think he is a bit small for middleweight, and Ruziboev’s frame and size will be difficult for him to handle. Ruziboev is very athletic for the division, and his movement, striking, and ground game should be enough to secure the win. Battle’s only path to victory will likely be clinching and holding him against the cage.

Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev(low confidence)
Best Bet: Ruziboev ML +145

Drakkar Klose knocking his opponent to the ground with a right hook.

Edson Barboza -160 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
The next fight features Edson Barboza, an extremely crafty kickboxer who was at the top of the lightweight division for years, fighting against the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and other big names. He had a short stint at featherweight before moving back up to lightweight for this fight.

Drakkar Klose is another physical, well-rounded fighter, similar to Battle. He recently lost by KO at UFC Tampa to a very skilled Joel Alvarez, but prior to that, he earned a nice decision win over Joaquim Silva at UFC 301. I don’t think he will pressure Barboza aggressively, but considering the damage Barboza took in his fight against Murphy and his advancing age, I’m leaning toward Klose getting a close win by outworking Barboza against the cage and possibly on the ground.

Don’t get me wrong: if this were prime Barboza, I’d pick him 10/10 times. Klose isn’t the most talented fighter, but this isn’t the same Barboza we saw scoring highlight KO’s, and I think Klose will edge him 29–28. I’m taking Drakkar Klose as the underdog with very low confidence. I advise bettors to approach this fight cautiously.

Best Bet: Drakkar Klose by Decision +270

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Chase Hooper -330 vs. Alexander Hernandez +260 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
This is going to be a pretty straightforward pick. Hooper has finally moved up to lightweight, where he belongs, and has put together a 3–4 fight win streak. Most of his opponents aren’t elite, but he’s consistently performed well, especially on the ground. He dominated Viacheslav Borschev, controlled Clay Guida, and earned a decision win over veteran Jim Miller.

Alexander Hernandez is a kickboxer who was once a hyped lightweight prospect but suffered a humbling loss to Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone after overlooking his opponent. I’m picking Chase Hooper to win. While Hernandez may have flashy moments on the feet, Hooper’s ground game will likely be too much, and he should lock up a submission at some point. I like that the UFC is building him up steadily, with Hernandez being a modest step-up in competition.

Pick: Chase Hooper (high confidence)
Best Bet: Chase Hooper by Submission +180

Vancouver’s Loopy Godinez gestures after a women’s strawweight bout against Brazil’s Tabatha Ricci at the UFC 295 mixed martial arts event Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in New York. Godinez won the fight. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

(WMMA) Loopy Godinez -150 vs. Jessica Andrade +125 (Strawweight, 115 lbs)
This matchup doesn’t intrigue me much. I don’t think Loopy Godinez is exceptional, and I consider Jessica Andrade one of the most overrated champions the UFC has had. Loopy has decent Mexican boxing and solid wrestling, while Andrade is a wild striker. Her style has worked in the past but struggles against emerging contenders.

The only real significance of this fight is ranking implications. That said, I expect Loopy to either keep the striking even or outstrike Andrade with volume, though Andrade may land the more powerful shots. Loopy will likely take it to the ground after seeing how Andrade was dominated by Jasmine Jasudavicius in her last fight. Loopy should accumulate significant cage and ground control, which will also open up more striking opportunities.

I’m picking the favorite, Loopy Godinez, with medium confidence to get the job done.

Best Bet: Loopy Godinez via Decision +110

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Michal Oleksiejczuk -220 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +180 (Middleweight, 185 lbs)
This should be a fun Middleweight clash. Oleksiejczuk is a powerful striker with a piston-like left hand and loves to throw bombs, especially overhands. Meerschaert is a UFC vet and fan favorite, known for his aggressive grappling. His striking isn’t impressive, which worries me against Oleksiejczuk, who has found success on the feet — knocking down Kevin Holland with an overhand (before getting submitted) and KO’ing Sedriques Dumas in his last fight.

Even though Meerschaert now trains with elite coaches, he still isn’t on their level. It will be interesting to see any improvements in his grappling. Meerschaert holds the record for most finishes in UFC Middleweight history and has racked up numerous submissions.

This is a tricky fight to predict. Meerschaert is tough, but I slightly lean toward Oleksiejczuk, as I don’t like Meerschaert’s head movement and trust that Oleksiejczuk can fend off a few early takedown attempts.

Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk (low confidence)
Best Bet: Fight to not go the distance -170

SAN ANTONIO, TX — JUNE 28: Carlos Diego Ferreira reacts to his victory over Colton Smith in their lightweight bout at the AT&T Center on June 28, 2014 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Diego Ferreira -150 vs. Bobby Green +125 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
This matchup has sneaky potential to be a banger. Bobby Green, whether you like him or not, is entertaining and loves to strike. His hands-down defense style eventually led to a loss against Mauricio Ruffy.

Diego Ferreira is another entertaining vet. He recently lost to Grant Dawson, one of the UFC’s best pure wrestlers, which is forgivable. Ferreira also scored a nice underdog win against Mateusz Rebecki, taking advantage of Rebecki gassing in the later rounds for a TKO finish.

Ferreira is explosive, has good ground skills, and excels in scrambles. He went to a split decision with Beneil Dariush and held his own against Gamrot, defending takedowns effectively. Green has solid Jiu-Jitsu, but I don’t expect the fight to hit the ground much — it should be a striking battle.

Despite his age, Ferreira still has it. Green’s tendency to keep his hands down could get him punished again, and Ferreira might stun or seriously hurt him. I’m picking Diego Ferreira to win with low confidence.

Best Bet: Diego Ferreira ML -150

Kai Asakura sitting on the ropes, celebrating after he defeats his opponent.

Kai Asakura -330 vs. Tim Elliott +260 (Flyweight, 125 lbs)
This is a test for Asakura, who is a world-class kickboxer with several highlight KOs in the Rizin organization, where he was champion. He made a UFC debut title-shot against Alexandre Pantoja, losing by submission in the second round but showing flashes, including a clean flying knee that could have KO’d any other flyweight. Considering Pantoja’s elite level, Asakura’s loss is understandable.

Tim Elliott hasn’t fought since 2023 and comes off a two-year layoff for unknown reasons. He is primarily a submission artist with mediocre striking and doesn’t impress much at this level.

I expect Asakura to show his true potential here and possibly put on a striking clinic. I also trust that he’s made adjustments to handle someone like Elliott, whose grappling is not as dangerous as Pantoja’s. The long layoff for Elliott further favors Asakura.

Pick: Kai Asakura (high confidence)
Best Bet: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO +180

Michael Venom Page landing an elbow to his opponents head in a Bellator fight.

Michael Venom Page -220 vs. Jared Cannonier +180 (Middleweight 185lbs)
We have another interesting Middleweight clash. This one has more ranking implications and can impact the middleweight division. Contrary to popular opinion, I actually like MVP. He may have an even more unorthodox style than DDP, but his striking is super flashy, and I love watching his blitzes into the pocket. MVP is also extremely hard to touch and get a hold of.

On the other side, everybody loves Jared Cannonier. He’s an absolute dog, a former title challenger, and has been in the top ten of the Middleweight Division for several years. Not to mention, Cannonier is one of two fighters in the UFC to have a win by finish in three different weight classes, the other being Conor McGregor. Cannonier is probably as old as my dad, but he proved he can still hang around after a huge comeback win, where he was hurt badly, against Gregory Rodrigues (who had a nasty KO in his recent fight).

MVP isn’t the youngest either, but he looked good in his middleweight fight against Sharapudtin Magomedov, another flashy striker, where I actually took MVP as the underdog to get the win. MVP put it on Kevin Holland and took Ian Garry to a razor-thin decision.

For the actual breakdown, I think this will look similar to the average MVP fight experience. He’s going to blitz inside the pocket, touch up Cannonier from range, and avoid taking too much damage. Cannonier will put pressure on MVP and is definitely the bigger fighter. With all things considered, the fight being only 3 rounds favors MVP. I also think it will be extremely difficult for Cannonier to get a hold of MVP, which is Cannonier’s path to victory.

Pick: Michael Venom Page (Medium confidence)
Best Bet: Michael Venom Page via Decision +120

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Carlos Prates -260 vs. Geoff Neal +200 (Welterweight 170lbs)
Oh my! This may very well be the fight I’m second-most excited for on this card besides the main event. This welterweight bout is destined to be a stand-up barnburner. Both fighters love to stand and bang, and I don’t see this fight going to the ground unless one fighter gets knocked down.

Prates is part of the notorious and extremely popular Fight Night Nerds squad, who have found extreme success in the UFC. Between the four horsemen of this gym — Mauricio Ruffy, Caio Borralho, Jean Silva, and Carlos Prates — they’ve tallied an impressive 19–1 record in the UFC, most wins by highlight finishes. Prates’ game plan is simple: walk you down to the cage and tee off on you. He thrives by putting pressure on opponents, and that’s where he makes his money.

Neal, on the other hand, is a vet/gatekeeper who doesn’t back down. He has crisp boxing and I expect him to stand and trade with Prates. Neal most recently picked up an injury TKO win against Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 308. Prior to that, he fought Shavkat Rakhmonov in a back-and-forth battle, ultimately being submitted in the third round.

I see this fight playing out with Prates walking Neal down while Neal constantly fights off the back foot, succumbing to Prates’ pressure. Prates lost to a game Ian Garry in his last fight on short notice in a 5-round battle, which he couldn’t properly prepare for. Before that, he had four vicious KOs in a row. I trust Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates to get the win here.

Pick: Carlos Prates (High confidence)
Best Bet: Carlos Prates ML -260

Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Pico -160 vs. Lerone Murphy +130 (Featherweight 145lbs, Co-Main Event 3 Rounds)
WOW! “Interesting” is an understatement for this fight. Most UFC fans know Lerone Murphy by now. He boasts an undefeated UFC record. While some criticize him as boring and call him a mini Leon Edwards, I’m a fan and believe he’s extremely talented. Murphy is a cautious striker who picks his shots carefully and dismantles opponents from range. He’s well-rounded and has decent scrambles.

In his second-to-last fight against Dan Ige, Murphy got hurt badly in the first round but quickly adjusted, using wrestling to survive and eventually win a unanimous 29–28 decision. He followed that up with a unanimous decision over a dangerous Josh Emmett.

On the other side, fans are eager to see Aaron Pico’s UFC debut. Pico is 13–4 in his MMA career, known for phenomenal wrestling credentials as a 2016 Olympic alternate, and has strong boxing and knockout power. It takes less than a minute to search up his YouTube highlights that show the absolute missiles in his hands that put opponents out cold.

However, Pico has been KO’d several times in Bellator, and his opponents have generally not been top-tier UFC fighters. Not many Bellator signees find success in the UFC. For example, Ben Askren was defeated in 3 seconds by Jorge Masvidal, and Patchy Mix lost a decision to Mario Bautista. I believe giving Pico Murphy in his debut is a tough matchup.

Lerone Murphy is a sniper — precise with his shots, capable of counter-wrestling, and can escape the ground effectively. Pico swings wild with power but lacks the tactical precision to consistently challenge Murphy. The short notice shouldn’t impact Murphy too much; he has solid cardio.

Pick: Lerone Murphy (Medium confidence)
Best Bet: Lerone Murphy by Decision +250

Dricus Du Plessis defended his UFC middleweight title in Perth against Israel Adesanya. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Dricus Du Plessis +160 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -190 (Middleweight Championship 185lbs, Main Event 5 Rounds)
Grueling, blockbuster, fireworks — just a few words to describe this main event. Fans haven’t been this excited for a fight all year.

Khamzat Chimaev has looked dominant since joining the UFC in 2020, averaging 17 seconds per takedown. Despite opponents knowing his style, few have found a solution to stop him from securing dominant decisions. Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman were his toughest tests, with Usman arguably drawing Chimaev.

Dricus Du Plessis (DDP) is a wonky, unorthodox fighter, well-rounded in all aspects of MMA with an underrated gas tank. Chimaev’s cardio is questionable. DDP has power in his hands but lacks technical finesse. Still, his striking and grappling have remained effective.

Both fighters bring undefeated UFC records: Khamzat at 14–0, DDP at 9–0. I favor Chimaev in the first and possibly second rounds; he comes out like a bat out of hell. However, I believe DDP can survive the early storm. DDP may be the biggest middleweight in the division, walking around 225+ lbs, and is too strong to be ragdolled.

As rounds progress, DDP’s effectiveness should increase while Chimaev fades. We know Chimaev expends massive energy in round one. If DDP survives the first two rounds, he should take control in later rounds.

Pick: Dricus Du Plessis (Medium/Low confidence)
Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis via KO +480

From the first fight to the main event, this card promises fireworks. Whether you follow my picks or just watch for the thrill, UFC fans are in for an unforgettable night.