Inside The Octagon Vol 1.

UFC 319 Hype Poster, designed by UFC

Note* This article is old. I just created the new website but wanted this to be on the page.

UFC 319 Picks & Predictions

By: Leo Guerreiro

There haven’t been many words to describe UFC pay-per-views in 2025 so far. If I had to pick one word to recap them all, as a 17-year-old MMA fan, I would say “lackluster.” Now, don’t get me wrong — there have definitely been some exciting fights and main events this year. Still, there have been only a few truly noteworthy fights on PPVs, like Royval vs. Van, Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov, Jiri vs. Hill, and a few others. Like I said earlier, the PPVs overall — and especially the main events — have been a bit of a letdown.

However, this weekend we should be in for a potential treat with Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev for the Middleweight (185 lbs) Championship. Chimaev is a smothering and dominant grappler, while DDP, the current champion with two title defenses, is known for his unorthodox style but has found nothing but success inside the UFC.

Not to mention, we also have a few other exciting matchups, such as Neal vs. Prates, a potential barnburner, and the debut of extremely touted Bellator prospect Aaron Pico, who takes on undefeated (34-year-old 😂) prospect Lerone Murphy in what could be a Featherweight Title Eliminator.

Let’s take a deeper dive into all the matchups on this card to see what we’re working with!

P.S. If you’d like to see my pick percentage or weekly picks, check out my Tapology account: GUERREIROPICKS — I’m currently picking at a 70.1% clip, going 10/12 on the last fight night (Dolidze vs. Hernandez).

Karine Silva plotting her next move against her opponent.

(WMMA) Karine Silva -230 vs. Dione Barbosa +190 (Flyweight, 125 lbs)
Dione Barbosa is coming off a quick submission win, which was definitely a nice result. However, I’m not very impressed with her recent opponent, Diana Belbita, who is no longer in the UFC (I believe). On the other hand, Silva is coming off a decision loss to veteran Viviane Araujo, in which most people favored Silva, but she disappointed in this fight.

Silva loves to pressure and is a big submission threat on the ground. Honestly, I think Barbosa is not on the same level as Silva, though she is still UFC-caliber. Barbosa should have good enough defense on the ground to deal with Silva’s submission threats. Neither woman has striking power strong enough to put the other away while standing, so most of the work will be done against the cage or on the ground — where I expect Silva to take the fight.

Pick: Karine Silva (high confidence)
Best Bet: Karine Silva ML -230

UFC fighter Nursulton Ruziboev landing uppercut on opponent, Sedriques Dumas

Nursulton Ruziboev +145 vs. Bryan Battle -170 (Middleweight, 185 lbs)
The next fight on the card is an interesting middleweight bout. Bryan Battle has fought in the welterweight division for most, if not all, of his UFC career. He has won all of his UFC fights except for his matchup against Rinat Fakhretdinov. Battle is a well-rounded martial artist who puts out a lot of volume and will continue to march forward and apply pressure.

On the other hand, Ruziboev has swung between weight classes, both at welterweight and middleweight. I’m not even sure how he makes welterweight — he’s a monster standing at 6’5”. He has solid striking with less volume but an incredible amount of power, having knocked out fighters like Bruno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas. His only loss came at welterweight, likely drained from the weight cut, to surging welterweight contender Joaquin Buckley.

Ruziboev also has a phenomenal ground game, though he hasn’t needed to use it much in the UFC. He boasts a 4–1 UFC record. I’m a big Ruziboev fan, so it’s hard to pick this fight without some bias. Battle typically uses physicality to outwork his opponents, but I do think he is a bit small for middleweight, and Ruziboev’s frame and size will be difficult for him to handle. Ruziboev is very athletic for the division, and his movement, striking, and ground game should be enough to secure the win. Battle’s only path to victory will likely be clinching and holding him against the cage.

Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev(low confidence)
Best Bet: Ruziboev ML +145

Drakkar Klose knocking his opponent to the ground with a right hook.

Edson Barboza -160 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
The next fight features Edson Barboza, an extremely crafty kickboxer who was at the top of the lightweight division for years, fighting against the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and other big names. He had a short stint at featherweight before moving back up to lightweight for this fight.

Drakkar Klose is another physical, well-rounded fighter, similar to Battle. He recently lost by KO at UFC Tampa to a very skilled Joel Alvarez, but prior to that, he earned a nice decision win over Joaquim Silva at UFC 301. I don’t think he will pressure Barboza aggressively, but considering the damage Barboza took in his fight against Murphy and his advancing age, I’m leaning toward Klose getting a close win by outworking Barboza against the cage and possibly on the ground.

Don’t get me wrong: if this were prime Barboza, I’d pick him 10/10 times. Klose isn’t the most talented fighter, but this isn’t the same Barboza we saw scoring highlight KO’s, and I think Klose will edge him 29–28. I’m taking Drakkar Klose as the underdog with very low confidence. I advise bettors to approach this fight cautiously.

Best Bet: Drakkar Klose by Decision +270

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Chase Hooper -330 vs. Alexander Hernandez +260 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
This is going to be a pretty straightforward pick. Hooper has finally moved up to lightweight, where he belongs, and has put together a 3–4 fight win streak. Most of his opponents aren’t elite, but he’s consistently performed well, especially on the ground. He dominated Viacheslav Borschev, controlled Clay Guida, and earned a decision win over veteran Jim Miller.

Alexander Hernandez is a kickboxer who was once a hyped lightweight prospect but suffered a humbling loss to Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone after overlooking his opponent. I’m picking Chase Hooper to win. While Hernandez may have flashy moments on the feet, Hooper’s ground game will likely be too much, and he should lock up a submission at some point. I like that the UFC is building him up steadily, with Hernandez being a modest step-up in competition.

Pick: Chase Hooper (high confidence)
Best Bet: Chase Hooper by Submission +180

Vancouver’s Loopy Godinez gestures after a women’s strawweight bout against Brazil’s Tabatha Ricci at the UFC 295 mixed martial arts event Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in New York. Godinez won the fight. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

(WMMA) Loopy Godinez -150 vs. Jessica Andrade +125 (Strawweight, 115 lbs)
This matchup doesn’t intrigue me much. I don’t think Loopy Godinez is exceptional, and I consider Jessica Andrade one of the most overrated champions the UFC has had. Loopy has decent Mexican boxing and solid wrestling, while Andrade is a wild striker. Her style has worked in the past but struggles against emerging contenders.

The only real significance of this fight is ranking implications. That said, I expect Loopy to either keep the striking even or outstrike Andrade with volume, though Andrade may land the more powerful shots. Loopy will likely take it to the ground after seeing how Andrade was dominated by Jasmine Jasudavicius in her last fight. Loopy should accumulate significant cage and ground control, which will also open up more striking opportunities.

I’m picking the favorite, Loopy Godinez, with medium confidence to get the job done.

Best Bet: Loopy Godinez via Decision +110

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Michal Oleksiejczuk -220 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +180 (Middleweight, 185 lbs)
This should be a fun Middleweight clash. Oleksiejczuk is a powerful striker with a piston-like left hand and loves to throw bombs, especially overhands. Meerschaert is a UFC vet and fan favorite, known for his aggressive grappling. His striking isn’t impressive, which worries me against Oleksiejczuk, who has found success on the feet — knocking down Kevin Holland with an overhand (before getting submitted) and KO’ing Sedriques Dumas in his last fight.

Even though Meerschaert now trains with elite coaches, he still isn’t on their level. It will be interesting to see any improvements in his grappling. Meerschaert holds the record for most finishes in UFC Middleweight history and has racked up numerous submissions.

This is a tricky fight to predict. Meerschaert is tough, but I slightly lean toward Oleksiejczuk, as I don’t like Meerschaert’s head movement and trust that Oleksiejczuk can fend off a few early takedown attempts.

Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk (low confidence)
Best Bet: Fight to not go the distance -170

SAN ANTONIO, TX — JUNE 28: Carlos Diego Ferreira reacts to his victory over Colton Smith in their lightweight bout at the AT&T Center on June 28, 2014 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Diego Ferreira -150 vs. Bobby Green +125 (Lightweight, 155 lbs)
This matchup has sneaky potential to be a banger. Bobby Green, whether you like him or not, is entertaining and loves to strike. His hands-down defense style eventually led to a loss against Mauricio Ruffy.

Diego Ferreira is another entertaining vet. He recently lost to Grant Dawson, one of the UFC’s best pure wrestlers, which is forgivable. Ferreira also scored a nice underdog win against Mateusz Rebecki, taking advantage of Rebecki gassing in the later rounds for a TKO finish.

Ferreira is explosive, has good ground skills, and excels in scrambles. He went to a split decision with Beneil Dariush and held his own against Gamrot, defending takedowns effectively. Green has solid Jiu-Jitsu, but I don’t expect the fight to hit the ground much — it should be a striking battle.

Despite his age, Ferreira still has it. Green’s tendency to keep his hands down could get him punished again, and Ferreira might stun or seriously hurt him. I’m picking Diego Ferreira to win with low confidence.

Best Bet: Diego Ferreira ML -150

Kai Asakura sitting on the ropes, celebrating after he defeats his opponent.

Kai Asakura -330 vs. Tim Elliott +260 (Flyweight, 125 lbs)
This is a test for Asakura, who is a world-class kickboxer with several highlight KOs in the Rizin organization, where he was champion. He made a UFC debut title-shot against Alexandre Pantoja, losing by submission in the second round but showing flashes, including a clean flying knee that could have KO’d any other flyweight. Considering Pantoja’s elite level, Asakura’s loss is understandable.

Tim Elliott hasn’t fought since 2023 and comes off a two-year layoff for unknown reasons. He is primarily a submission artist with mediocre striking and doesn’t impress much at this level.

I expect Asakura to show his true potential here and possibly put on a striking clinic. I also trust that he’s made adjustments to handle someone like Elliott, whose grappling is not as dangerous as Pantoja’s. The long layoff for Elliott further favors Asakura.

Pick: Kai Asakura (high confidence)
Best Bet: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO +180

Michael Venom Page landing an elbow to his opponents head in a Bellator fight.

Michael Venom Page -220 vs. Jared Cannonier +180 (Middleweight 185lbs)
We have another interesting Middleweight clash. This one has more ranking implications and can impact the middleweight division. Contrary to popular opinion, I actually like MVP. He may have an even more unorthodox style than DDP, but his striking is super flashy, and I love watching his blitzes into the pocket. MVP is also extremely hard to touch and get a hold of.

On the other side, everybody loves Jared Cannonier. He’s an absolute dog, a former title challenger, and has been in the top ten of the Middleweight Division for several years. Not to mention, Cannonier is one of two fighters in the UFC to have a win by finish in three different weight classes, the other being Conor McGregor. Cannonier is probably as old as my dad, but he proved he can still hang around after a huge comeback win, where he was hurt badly, against Gregory Rodrigues (who had a nasty KO in his recent fight).

MVP isn’t the youngest either, but he looked good in his middleweight fight against Sharapudtin Magomedov, another flashy striker, where I actually took MVP as the underdog to get the win. MVP put it on Kevin Holland and took Ian Garry to a razor-thin decision.

For the actual breakdown, I think this will look similar to the average MVP fight experience. He’s going to blitz inside the pocket, touch up Cannonier from range, and avoid taking too much damage. Cannonier will put pressure on MVP and is definitely the bigger fighter. With all things considered, the fight being only 3 rounds favors MVP. I also think it will be extremely difficult for Cannonier to get a hold of MVP, which is Cannonier’s path to victory.

Pick: Michael Venom Page (Medium confidence)
Best Bet: Michael Venom Page via Decision +120

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Carlos Prates -260 vs. Geoff Neal +200 (Welterweight 170lbs)
Oh my! This may very well be the fight I’m second-most excited for on this card besides the main event. This welterweight bout is destined to be a stand-up barnburner. Both fighters love to stand and bang, and I don’t see this fight going to the ground unless one fighter gets knocked down.

Prates is part of the notorious and extremely popular Fight Night Nerds squad, who have found extreme success in the UFC. Between the four horsemen of this gym — Mauricio Ruffy, Caio Borralho, Jean Silva, and Carlos Prates — they’ve tallied an impressive 19–1 record in the UFC, most wins by highlight finishes. Prates’ game plan is simple: walk you down to the cage and tee off on you. He thrives by putting pressure on opponents, and that’s where he makes his money.

Neal, on the other hand, is a vet/gatekeeper who doesn’t back down. He has crisp boxing and I expect him to stand and trade with Prates. Neal most recently picked up an injury TKO win against Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 308. Prior to that, he fought Shavkat Rakhmonov in a back-and-forth battle, ultimately being submitted in the third round.

I see this fight playing out with Prates walking Neal down while Neal constantly fights off the back foot, succumbing to Prates’ pressure. Prates lost to a game Ian Garry in his last fight on short notice in a 5-round battle, which he couldn’t properly prepare for. Before that, he had four vicious KOs in a row. I trust Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates to get the win here.

Pick: Carlos Prates (High confidence)
Best Bet: Carlos Prates ML -260

Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Pico -160 vs. Lerone Murphy +130 (Featherweight 145lbs, Co-Main Event 3 Rounds)
WOW! “Interesting” is an understatement for this fight. Most UFC fans know Lerone Murphy by now. He boasts an undefeated UFC record. While some criticize him as boring and call him a mini Leon Edwards, I’m a fan and believe he’s extremely talented. Murphy is a cautious striker who picks his shots carefully and dismantles opponents from range. He’s well-rounded and has decent scrambles.

In his second-to-last fight against Dan Ige, Murphy got hurt badly in the first round but quickly adjusted, using wrestling to survive and eventually win a unanimous 29–28 decision. He followed that up with a unanimous decision over a dangerous Josh Emmett.

On the other side, fans are eager to see Aaron Pico’s UFC debut. Pico is 13–4 in his MMA career, known for phenomenal wrestling credentials as a 2016 Olympic alternate, and has strong boxing and knockout power. It takes less than a minute to search up his YouTube highlights that show the absolute missiles in his hands that put opponents out cold.

However, Pico has been KO’d several times in Bellator, and his opponents have generally not been top-tier UFC fighters. Not many Bellator signees find success in the UFC. For example, Ben Askren was defeated in 3 seconds by Jorge Masvidal, and Patchy Mix lost a decision to Mario Bautista. I believe giving Pico Murphy in his debut is a tough matchup.

Lerone Murphy is a sniper — precise with his shots, capable of counter-wrestling, and can escape the ground effectively. Pico swings wild with power but lacks the tactical precision to consistently challenge Murphy. The short notice shouldn’t impact Murphy too much; he has solid cardio.

Pick: Lerone Murphy (Medium confidence)
Best Bet: Lerone Murphy by Decision +250

Dricus Du Plessis defended his UFC middleweight title in Perth against Israel Adesanya. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Dricus Du Plessis +160 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -190 (Middleweight Championship 185lbs, Main Event 5 Rounds)
Grueling, blockbuster, fireworks — just a few words to describe this main event. Fans haven’t been this excited for a fight all year.

Khamzat Chimaev has looked dominant since joining the UFC in 2020, averaging 17 seconds per takedown. Despite opponents knowing his style, few have found a solution to stop him from securing dominant decisions. Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman were his toughest tests, with Usman arguably drawing Chimaev.

Dricus Du Plessis (DDP) is a wonky, unorthodox fighter, well-rounded in all aspects of MMA with an underrated gas tank. Chimaev’s cardio is questionable. DDP has power in his hands but lacks technical finesse. Still, his striking and grappling have remained effective.

Both fighters bring undefeated UFC records: Khamzat at 14–0, DDP at 9–0. I favor Chimaev in the first and possibly second rounds; he comes out like a bat out of hell. However, I believe DDP can survive the early storm. DDP may be the biggest middleweight in the division, walking around 225+ lbs, and is too strong to be ragdolled.

As rounds progress, DDP’s effectiveness should increase while Chimaev fades. We know Chimaev expends massive energy in round one. If DDP survives the first two rounds, he should take control in later rounds.

Pick: Dricus Du Plessis (Medium/Low confidence)
Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis via KO +480

From the first fight to the main event, this card promises fireworks. Whether you follow my picks or just watch for the thrill, UFC fans are in for an unforgettable night.