Noche UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions — 9/13
It all begins with an idea.
Paris Fight Night Recap
Hello all, my apologies for not being able to post a full breakdown of the fights this week. I had to make a last-minute post because I’ve had a lot of schoolwork and just finished taking my final SAT this morning — so I’m officially done with standardized tests! Hope you all enjoy the recap.
Prelims
Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight)
Rodrigo Sezinando comes in with an 8‑1 pro record, showing a mix of KO/TKOs (≈50%) and submissions, with a strong finishing rate early in fights. Daniil Donchenko is younger, holding a 12‑2 record, and is also dangerous — with eight TKOs and a couple of submissions. He recently made a name for himself on The Ultimate Fighter with a dominant KO finish. In a nutshell: Sezinando will look to pressure early and lean on his grappling, while Donchenko will likely use his powerful striking, reach, and recent momentum. The outcome may depend on whether Sezinando can avoid being overwhelmed and drag the fight into his world.
My Pick: Daniil Donchenko
WMMA — Alice Pereira vs. Monserrat Rendon (Bantamweight)
Monserrat Rendon (6‑1) brings more experience, likely a more mature game, and has competed at higher levels. Alice Pereira (6‑0) is only 19 years old, with strong finishing potential and an undefeated record, but she’s less proven against top competition. Pereira’s aggression and youth give her upside — she could win if she imposes a fast pace and lands early. But Rendon’s experience could allow her to weather that storm, use grappling and fight IQ, and possibly dominate if it goes long. Still, I like Pereira to get it done and make a statement as the youngest female fighter in UFC strawweight history.
My Pick: Alice Pereira
Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria (Flyweight)
Fun flyweight scrap! Coria is a newcomer with a versatile, well-rounded game — he has several finishes both on the feet and on the ground. Most of his wins come via finish, but he tends to lose by decision unless submitted. Costa, on the other hand, is one of Diego Lopes’ training partners and is often in his corner (or vice versa). He has more UFC experience and solid jiu-jitsu. This should be a competitive and exciting fight.
Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas (Middleweight)
Interesting middleweight matchup. Dumas has a few UFC fights under his belt and is a solid striker, though his grappling still needs work. He’s also had outside-the-cage issues — including pulling out of a recent fight due to legal constraints. Reese is also a striker but tends to spend too much time on his back, hunting for submissions off his back, which I don’t love. However, I think Reese is the more focused and committed fighter, and I don’t see Dumas taking him down much.
Pick: Zachary Reese
Jesus Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight)
This should be a fun flyweight battle. Aguilar is a submission specialist, especially dangerous with guillotines. His striking is okay, but he’ll definitely be looking to wrestle. Gurule is now in his second UFC fight, with his debut loss coming against Ode Osbourne. That’s not a bad loss — Osbourne is a rangy, tricky striker and even gave Erceg trouble before losing on the cards. I’m taking Gurule here. He’s a well-rounded martial artist with solid takedown defense and clean standup. I think he can stop Aguilar’s takedowns and control the fight.
Pick: Luis Gurule
Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva (Lightweight)
This feels like a random lightweight scrap. Neither fighter has been active recently. Silva last fought Drakkar Klose at UFC 301 and nearly secured a guillotine before losing a competitive decision. Puelles hasn’t fought in a long time either. He’s a pure BJJ fighter — I really don’t like his style. He scoots around the cage like Kron Gracie and has very little striking. Against Silva, who also has a BJJ black belt, I don’t think Puelles will find a submission. I see the ground game canceling out, with Silva winning the striking exchanges.
Pick: Joaquim Silva
Jose Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic (Middleweight)
Possibly the worst middleweight matchup on the roster. Todorovic was once a promising prospect, but he’s taken several losses and now seems to be a gatekeeper for up-and-comers. Medina, in my opinion, is the weakest middleweight on the UFC roster — a very basic striker with not much to offer. I think Todorovic will land the cleaner strikes, do more damage, and either coast to a decision win or get a late KO.
Pick: Dusko Todorovic
Main Card
Santiago Luna vs. Quang Le (Bantamweight)
This bantamweight matchup pits experienced, well-rounded Quang Le against undefeated prospect Santiago Luna. Le brings proven submission skills and durability, having fought tougher competition. Luna, the taller and likely more explosive striker, will look to overwhelm early. If it hits the ground or goes long, Le’s grappling and composure could take over. A classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic. I’ll take Le’s experience to edge it out.
My Pick: Quang Le
Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira (Lightweight)
Another fun lightweight bout. Hernandez recently scored a KO win over Chase Hooper at UFC 318, while Ferreira was supposed to fight Bobby Green on the same card before Green pulled out. Ferreira is very well-rounded, with dangerous BJJ and solid striking. Hernandez is a good striker too, but this is a quick turnaround for him. I think Ferreira’s experience and skillset will carry him to a competitive 29–28 decision win.
My Pick: Diego Ferreira
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (Middleweight)
Kelvin Gastelum is the more battle-tested veteran, known for his boxing, pace, and toughness. However, he missed weight by 5 pounds, raising concerns about his conditioning. Stoltzfus is a capable grappler with size and reach advantages, and he could capitalize on Gastelum’s potential fatigue. While Kelvin has the edge in striking and experience, Stoltzfus is underrated and gave Ruziboev a tough fight. Still, I’ll side with the vet.
My Pick: Kelvin Gastelum
Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight)
Kind of a meaningless lightweight matchup. Garcia is a control-based grappler who isn’t much of a threat on the ground. Gordon, meanwhile, is a wrestler with solid power — and he recently knocked out Thiago Moises. He also arguably won fights against Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett. I think Gordon is better than his record suggests and will control this fight.
My Pick: Jared Gordon
WMMA — Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos (Strawweight)
Strawweight title eliminator. Lemos is a seasoned striker with some grappling defense, but Suarez is an elite grappler with nonstop pressure. Suarez recently challenged Zhang Weili and looked good early before gassing out. That said, I think she’ll dominate Lemos with her wrestling and pace, either by ragdolling her for three rounds or finding a submission.
My Pick: Tatiana Suarez
Rob Font vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight)
Both are talented strikers. Font was supposed to fight Raul Rosas Jr. but now draws Martinez, who still had a full camp. Font has a great jab; Martinez thrives in the clinch. I think Martinez is very promising, but this is only his second UFC fight and Font is too experienced. I expect Font to show the levels here and win, though Martinez will likely steal a round.
Pick: Rob Font
Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva (Featherweight)
Awesome featherweight title eliminator. Some fans are overreacting to the “fighting nerds” losing, but they’re just now facing elite competition. Lopes has insane BJJ and dangerous power, thriving in brawls. Jean Silva is a slick, calculated striker with strong TDD and even submission threats. I think Silva is a bad stylistic matchup for Lopes. He’s patient, well-rounded, and sharp — similar to Volk in how he breaks opponents down. I see Lopes overcommitting and getting caught.
Pick: Jean Silva