UFC Paris Fight Night Picks & Predictions
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(Quick note before I dive into things) — similar to last week’s card, this one is going to be tricky to predict. Even more so because there are many fighters making their UFC debuts, which means there isn’t much tape to study. On top of that, almost every matchup feels like a toss-up. Still, I don’t think it’s anything we can’t handle.
Last week was a little disappointing. I apologize for dropping below 70%, but we still hit at a 66% clip. Considering how many toss-ups were on that card, I’d say the predictions were solid overall. We went 8/12, so not too bad. I also forgot to upload the picks on Tapology since I wrote the article right before my SAT — it completely slipped my mind. None of the picks changed, though, so no worries there.
This week’s card should be both interesting and entertaining. There are several fighters making their debuts in the UFC: Axel Sola, Ante Delija, Robert Ruchala, and Losene Keita. It’s unusual to see four fighters debut on the same card, but hey — it should make things fun to watch and tough to predict.
The main event between Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho is also a unique situation. As Dana White explained, it’s one of two #1 contender matches. This fight, along with the upcoming Anthony Hernandez vs. Reinier De Ridder bout, will decide who faces Khamzat Chimaev for the middleweight title. Dana made it clear that whichever winner looks more dominant will get the shot.
Let’s dive into the breakdowns.
Note:
Props aren’t out yet since I’m writing this a week in advance. I’ll give my method of victory or money line pick instead.
Prelims
(W) Shauna Bannon (+210) vs. Sam Hughes (-260), Strawweight (115 lbs)
This is a pretty uneventful women’s fight with no real implications for the division. That said, Sam Hughes has quietly built a nice win streak, picking up underdog victories over Victoria Dudakova and Stephanie Luciano.
Shauna Bannon, on the other hand, hasn’t been very convincing. She should have lost her most recent fight after getting dropped by Puja Tumar (who isn’t a high-level opponent) but managed to pull off a slick armbar. Before that, she barely edged out a split decision win at UFC 304 against Alice Ardelean. Bannon is a decent kickboxer with some submission skills, but she’s hittable.
Sam Hughes is a gritty, pressure-heavy fighter. She comes forward, overwhelms opponents, and grinds out control time. I don’t love the odds here, but I trust Hughes’ pressure and wrestling to neutralize Bannon’s striking.
Pick: Sam Hughes
Best Bet: Sam Hughes by Decision (odds n/a)
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-150) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+120), Welterweight (170 lbs)
This fight actually matters for the welterweight rankings, with both fighters hovering near the top 15.
Fakhretdinov is a classic Russian wrestler with relentless pressure and cardio. His striking is average but sets up his takedowns. Despite an 18-finish record, most of his UFC wins have come by decision — he isn’t particularly dangerous.
Gustafsson is also pressure-heavy but more of a “bully striker.” He likes to push opponents back, outwork them, and break their will. He impressed on the Contender Series and then beat Khaos Williams in his UFC debut — a legit win since Williams is tough and dangerous.
I think Fakhretdinov’s UFC record is padded. He squeaked by Nicolas Dalby in a split decision and arguably lost to Carlos Leal in what many called a robbery. His wrestling didn’t look dominant in that fight, and he struggled to land clean shots.
Gustafsson, meanwhile, has the tools to punish Fakhretdinov in the clinch and outwork him over three rounds. I like the underdog here.
Pick: Andreas Gustafsson
Best Bet: Andreas Gustafsson ML (-110)
Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek, Middleweight (185 lbs)
This fight doesn’t mean much in the middleweight division. It’s basically “Unc vs. Unc,” with Tavares at 37 and Bryczek at 35.
Bryczek lost his UFC debut to Ihor Potieria, which is embarrassing — Potieria is widely seen as one of the weakest fighters on the roster. Still, Bryczek has solid striking and KO power, with Jan Blachowicz praising him, though that may just be Polish loyalty.
Tavares is a veteran with 26 UFC fights and strong takedown defense. He’s a technical striker who usually wins decisions against mid-tier opponents but loses to top contenders. Despite his age and mileage, I think Tavares’ speed advantage and experience should help him edge out a decision here.
Pick: Brad Tavares
Best Bet: Brad Tavares by Decision (odds n/a)
Sam Patterson (-210) vs. Trey Waters (+180), Welterweight (170 lbs)
This is a fun stylistic clash. Patterson is tall and rangy at 6’3, while Waters is even bigger at 6’5 with a thicker build. Both are long strikers with equal reach.
Waters is coming off a war with Billy Ray Goff where he took a lot of damage, and he’s had a long layoff since. His weight cut could be rough, which makes me question his cardio. Patterson, now at welterweight, looks sturdier after moving up from lightweight and has improved his grappling game.
While Waters has the power and boxing to clip Patterson, I think Patterson’s length, cardio, and grappling will win out. I expect him to wear Waters down and possibly lock up a late submission.
Pick: Sam Patterson
Best Bet: Sam Patterson ML (-150 range)
Axel Sola vs. Rhys McKee — Welterweight (170 lbs)
Interesting short-notice matchup here. UFC newcomer Axel Sola comes in with a 10–0–1 record, mostly in ARES, a solid European promotion for rising talent. Rhys McKee, meanwhile, has five UFC fights under his belt, going 1–4 across two stints. His lone UFC win came against Daniel Frunza, dominating him before a doctor stoppage. He also has respectable losses to Chidi Njokouani and Ange Loosa, and two Cage Warriors TKOs that earned him another UFC shot.
McKee is a solid striker with a long 78" reach and plenty of UFC experience — he should have no octagon jitters. Sola, taking this fight on short notice, up a weight class, and in front of his home crowd, faces extra pressure. That said, Sola is a tough inside fighter who can capitalize in the pocket.
This is a close fight, but I’m leaning toward Sola. He’s extremely talented, and I think he has what it takes to beat a lower-tier UFC opponent.
Pick: Axel Sola
Best Bet: Axel Sola ML -130
Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija — Heavyweight (265 lbs)
Another matchup with a UFC newcomer, Ante Delija, transitioning from PFL. Delija is 35, 8–3 in the PFL, and 1–0 in Rizin and KSW. Tybura, 39, has been in the UFC for years with a 14–8 record, facing top-tier heavyweights like Aspinall, Parkin, Tuivasa, and Volkov. He’s a mid-tier striker with strong grappling, preferring to grind opponents down on the mat.
Delija has power and a solid wrestling base, but Tybura’s UFC experience gives him a clear edge. He should neutralize Delija’s striking, control grappling exchanges, and come away with the win.
Pick: Marcin Tybura
Best Bet: Marcin Tybura ML
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro — Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Sy disappointed in his last fight as a heavy favorite, looking lost against veteran Alonzo Menifield. Still, he has solid grappling, composed striking, and a lot of upside. Ribeiro is wild and unpredictable but hasn’t impressed much in the UFC (2–3), with padded wins and losses to strong fighters.
Sy has the skill advantage everywhere — standing or on the ground — and should bounce back with a smart performance. A KO, submission, or decision is all possible.
Pick: Oumar Sy
Best Bet: Oumar Sy ML
William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala — Featherweight (145 lbs)
Gomis is a technical, measured fighter with 4–1 UFC experience, skilled in striking and grappling. Ruchala comes from KSW as a two-time champion and a flashy, unpredictable fighter. UFC competition is a step up, and Gomis’ precision and grappling should be decisive.
He’s likely to avoid Ruchala’s wild attacks and control exchanges throughout, earning the win.
Pick: William Gomis
Best Bet: Gomis by Decision
Patricio Pitbull vs. Losene Keita — Featherweight (145 lbs)
This is a highly anticipated debut for Keita, a 27-year-old double champ in Oktagon with knockout power and versatility. Pitbull is a former double Bellator champ, now 1–1 in the UFC. He’s talented but past his prime.
Experience favors Pitbull, but Keita is in his prime, extremely well-rounded, and has high finishing ability. I expect the newcomer to pull off the win, though Pitbull could still sneak a crafty performance.
Pick: Losene Keita
Best Bet: Keita ITD
Fares Ziam vs. Kaue Fernandes — Lightweight (155 lbs)
This is a very fun lightweight matchup between two strikers with contrasting styles. Fares Ziam is a technical, composed fighter who picks opponents apart from range. He throws moderate volume with precise shots, and he’s effective in the clinch with knees to the body. While he has solid grappling, he prefers to stay on the feet.
Kaue Fernandes is flashier and more unpredictable. He’s coming off a huge upset win over Guram Kutateladze, dominating both standing and on the ground, and previously scored a KO over Mohammed Yahya. Fernandes is 2–1 in the UFC and has shown serious improvement, making him dangerous.
Ziam has UFC experience on his side, with a 7–2 record in the promotion. Fernandes is on the rise, but I believe Ziam’s well-rounded skill set and composure will give him the edge in a close fight.
Pick: Fares Ziam via Decision
Best Bet: N/A (Fight may be off due to Ziam’s withdrawal; if Fernandes fights a replacement opponent, he’s favored unless it’s a top-15 fighter)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig — Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
This fight is likely to be a one-sided affair. Paul Craig has elite jiu-jitsu but lacks the striking to compete effectively against a technical striker like Bukauskas. Bukauskas is precise, uses low volume, and relies on striking to win decisions, only using submissions when necessary.
Craig’s limited striking makes him predictable. Bukauskas should control the stand-up exchanges and coast to a decision unless he scores a TKO. His last fight, a split decision against Ion Cutelaba, was controversial, but that experience won’t be an issue here.
Pick: Modestas Bukauskas
Best Bet: Bukauskas ML or Decision
Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones — Lightweight (155 lbs)
A fun lightweight bout focused on striking. Oki is a simple, straightforward striker with limited head movement. Jones is more dynamic, flashy, and experienced, recently returning to the UFC after wins in Cage Warriors and a solid performance against Jeremy Stephens.
Jones has the advantage in volume, technique, and versatility. Oki can land power shots, but Jones should control the fight and earn a decision.
Pick: Mason Jones via Decision
Best Bet: Mason Jones by Decision
Benoit St-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy — Lightweight (155 lbs)
High-stakes lightweight matchup with potential top-15 implications. Ruffy is a slick striker with excellent distance management and high-impact shots. St-Denis is a powerful, well-rounded fighter with a dominant ground game but sloppy striking and poor head movement.
St-Denis’ only path to victory is a high-volume takedown strategy, which is unlikely to succeed against Ruffy’s striking. Ruffy has multiple ways to win, either standing or capitalizing on a sloppy takedown attempt.
Pick: Mauricio Ruffy
Best Bet: Ruffy ML -230
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho — Middleweight (185 lbs)
This is the standout bout of the card — a true #1 contender matchup. Imavov is on a 4-fight win streak, defeating top competition including Jared Cannonier, Brendan Allen, and Israel Adesanya. He’s a well-rounded kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and footwork.
Borralho is also well-rounded, an elite grappler, and has steadily risen through the UFC ranks. While Borralho is dangerous on the ground, Imavov’s takedown defense and superior striking should keep the fight standing. Over five rounds, Imavov’s precision and volume should secure the win.
Pick: Nassourdine Imavov
Best Bet: Imavov ML +100
Longshot Parlay
William Gomis ML -170
Nassourdine Imavov ML +100
Alexander Gustafsson ML -120
Marcin Tybura ML -115
Odds: +1000