UFC Shanghai Fight Night Picks & Predictions
Picks and Predictions for UFC Shanghai Fight Night - 8/23
Recap
Last week was another strong outing overall. Quick note before diving in: occasionally I’ll switch a pick last minute. To avoid confusion, I’ll always leave my Tapology link here so you can check for real-time updates if I make changes or if late-notice fights are added.
That being said, I went 9/12 on picks last week — solid results. My misses were Alibi Idriss, Chase Hooper, and Kai Asakura (who busted just about everyone’s parlays). Still, I’m happy with the card overall. I also finished 101st out of 9,292 on Tapology, which means I placed better than 99% of all entries. Hoping to keep that momentum rolling into this weekend.
On another note — I’ll be taking the SAT this weekend (wish me luck, aiming for a 1400), so I won’t be able to watch live. But don’t worry, I’ve still got the breakdowns, picks, and best bets lined up for you.
Quick Disclaimer
This card looks trickier than usual. A lot of close matchups, and the prelims in particular feel volatile. If you’re betting, be cautious with parlays. My “Best Bets” this week lean on the safer side. Additionally, I realized for copy-right reasons, I cannot add the images I want. So by next week, I will find a solution to that issue.
Prelims
Uran Satybaldiev Vs. Diyar Nugozhay (LHW)
Messy fight to kick things off. Both fighters are 0–1 in the UFC. Satybaldiev gave Martin Buday a surprisingly competitive fight on short notice, landing the bigger shots despite being undersized. Nurgozhay, meanwhile, badly missed weight (by 4–5 lbs) in his last fight and then got submitted by Brendson Ribeiro. That’s not a good look for a guy whose strength is supposed to be grappling.
Satybaldiev isn’t elite anywhere but he’s tough and more reliable. Nurgozhay has shown quit in him, which I never like picking. Still, this is razor-close and probably the least confident pick of the card.
Pick: Satybaldiev (very low confidence)
Best Bet: None (likely off the board anyway)
Uran Satybaldiev winning the LFA Light Heavyweight Championship
Xiao Long vs. Su Young Yu (BW)
Fun stylistic matchup between two grapplers. Xiao Long prefers to strike despite his grappling base, while Su Young Yu is a relentless wrestler who wastes no time shooting takedowns.
Most lean toward Xiao Long for his takedown defense, but I’m siding with Yu. His pace is suffocating, and the constant takedown threat should also open up striking opportunities. Korean fighters have looked extremely sharp in 2025, and I’m not betting against that trend.
Pick: Su Young Yu (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Su Young Yu ML -150
Su Young Yu shadown boxing during his photoshoot for UAE Warriors promotion
YiZha vs. Westin Wilson (FW)
YiZha as a -1400 favorite? Wild. Neither of these guys should ever be priced that steep unless they’re fighting amateurs.
Wilson is limited but has at least one UFC win, and his losses came to killers like Joanderson Brito and Jean Silva. YiZha is 0–2 in the UFC but did face solid competition. He should win here by keeping it on the feet, but there’s value in Wilson as a massive underdog.
Pick: YiZha (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Small sprinkle on Westin Wilson ML
YiZha posing for his UFC Photoshoot
Michael Daukas Vs. Michel Pereira (MW)
Straightforward breakdown: Pereira is unpredictable, flashy, and dangerous early. Daukaus is a grappler with solid submission chops, but his striking isn’t enough to hang with Pereira.
Gas tank is always the issue with Pereira, but I think he ends this in Round 1 before that becomes a factor.
Pick: Michel Pereira (high confidence)
Best Bet: Pereira KO/TKO +160
Michel Pereira performing a backflip to pass his opponent, Ihor Potieria’s, defensive guard
Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard (LW)
Sneaky good fight. Rongzhu impressed by dismantling Kody Steele as a +250 underdog, showing sharp striking and composure. Hubbard is a grinder with decent boxing, but his game feels a step behind at this level.
The odds are wide, but Rongzhu should defend takedowns and land the bigger shots.
Pick: Rongzhu (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Rongzhu by KO/TKO or Points -210
Lone’er Kavanugh Vs. Charles Johnson (FLW)
Rongzhu landing a clean right-cross against his opponent Kody Steele
Great stylistic matchup. Kavanaugh is fast, dangerous, and has momentum after two UFC wins. Johnson is a seasoned vet, technical striker, and tends to heat up as fights go long.
I see Johnson dropping the first round but turning it around in the 2nd and 3rd. Close one, but experience sways me here.
Pick: Charles Johnson (low confidence)
Best Bet: Johnson +3.5 -180
Gauge Young Vs. Maheshate (LW)
Two middling lightweights. Maheshate has distance striking but is inconsistent and 1–3 in his last four. Gauge Young hits harder in the pocket and should edge out rounds with damage.
Expect a low-level, possibly boring decision.
Pick: Gauge Young (low confidence)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 -164
Gauge Young flexing in the octagon after defeating his opponent
Main Card
Taiyilake Nueraji Vs. Kiefer Crosbie (WW)
This matchup looks tailor-made for Nueraji to shine in front of the home crowd. Crosbie is wild, powerful, but very beatable.
Expect Nueraji to overwhelm him with well-rounded tools and get a finish.
Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji (high confidence)
Best Bet: Nueraji Inside the Distance -250
Taiyilake Nueraji celebrating his victory on the regional scene
Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas (FLW)
Both are solid top-25 flyweights. Sumudaerji is rangy and uses kicks to manage distance but doesn’t land with much power. Borjas is sharper with his boxing and likely lands the more meaningful shots.
Close, competitive striking match, but I lean Borjas for output and impact.
Pick: Kevin Borjas (low/medium confidence)
Best Bet: Borjas ML +135
Sergei Pavlovich Vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (HW)
Pavlovich is dangerous early but one-dimensional and hasn’t evolved. Cortes-Acosta, while not elite, is improving and could outlast Pavlovich by avoiding big shots.
This feels closer than people think.
Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (low confidence)
Best Bet: Cortes-Acosta ML
Waldo Cortes Acosta landing ground and pound shots on Ryan Spann
Co-Main: Brian Ortega Vs. Aljamain Sterling (FW, 5 rounds)
Two elite grapplers, former champ vs. perennial contender. Ortega’s jiu-jitsu is always a threat, but Sterling’s back control and top game should neutralize him. Aljo also has the edge in striking volume.
Unless Ortega pulls off a sub, I see Sterling controlling enough minutes to win.
Pick: Aljamain Sterling (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance -180
Aljamain Sterling celebrating his split-decision victory over Petr Yan while having the belt wrapped around his waist
Main Event: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang (LHW, 5 Rounds)
Walker is unpredictable, athletic, and fun — but he’s been in a slump. Zhang is young, powerful, and has grappling he hasn’t even needed to use yet.
If Zhang fights smart, he should be able to close distance, win exchanges, and potentially finish Walker.
Pick: Mingyang Zhang (medium confidence)
Best Bet: Zhang KO/Sub -310
Zhang Mingyang celebrating his victory by sitting on top of the octagon
Longshot Parlay (+1680)
Charles Johnson +3.5 (-180)
Michel Pereira 1st Round KO/TKO (+440)
Taiyilake Nueraji ML (-330)
Maheshate vs. Gauge Young Over 2.5 (-160)
Thanks For Reading!!! Until Next Week.